An IWSR market analysis forecasts that there will be no rebound in the alcoholic beverages sector until 2024.
The covid-19 pandemic will -and already has- impact alcohol consumption in 2020. According to IWSR, a double-digit decline is expected in 2020 and there will be no upturn until 2024.
It is expected that the United States and the United Kingdom will take longer to recover from the crisis and will not see a rebound until 2024 either. In fact, the sector’s recovery will take longer than it did after the economic collapse of 2008, says IWSR CEO Mark Meek. “Our view is that it will take at least five years to return to the situation of 2019,” he said.
IWSR believes the alcohols that seem to be rebounding fastest are whiskey and gin. Vodka volumes, on the other hand, will take longer to recover, i.e. after 2024. Rum, which had been experiencing a good rate of growth between 2017 and 2019, will take much longer to recover.
“The categories that we think will be most affected [by covid-19] will be brandy, rum, whisky and gin,” Meek said. “This is because the strongest drivers of consumption are either or both facility retail and travel. Therefore, we expect a fairly sharp decline in those categories by 2020.“
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